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\nIt'll Never Fly: Beat Confirmation Bias\n

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\nIt'll Never Fly' How often have you heard words like that at the start of your project? Or maybe you've heard yourself saying them. If so, you're in danger of 'Confirmation Bias'.If you've ever said 'it'll never fly', you're in good...\nIt'll Never Fly' How often have you heard words like that at the start of your project? Or maybe you've heard yourself saying them. If so, you're in danger of 'Confirmation Bias'.

If you've ever said 'it'll never fly', you're in good company.
Lord Kelvin was one of the late 19th century's pre-eminent physicists. He announced that: 'heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible'

The absence of evidence is not the same as evidence of absence. Happily, the Wright brothers weren't aware of him. Or perhaps they didn't credit his pronouncement.

What about Project Management?
All this raises a number of themes that project managers should be aware of.

1. Testing prototypes and running pilot programs are part of the discovery process. We should make more use of them.

2. Unforeseen events often disrupt our projects. Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls them 'Black Swan events' (   • What is a Black Swan?  ). We could equally call them 'Flying Machine events'.

3. Too often, project managers compile status reports based on what they know. Or they use data gathering to 'evidence' their executive summary. Instead, you should always start with an analysis of the data, and develop a fresh summary. That reduces the risk of confirmation bias.

4. Assumptions can be fatal. We think we know something and become complacent in our knowledge. It's our duty to check.

From Failure to Crisis
Often, we talk about sources of project failure. But how do project failures become crises? Usually when unaddressed causes of failure are accompanied by over-confidence.

And who tends to be the most over-confident?
Philip Tetlock found the answer to this, through his research. The answer is shocking: experts.

How does Tetlock - now an expert in the science of forecasting - suggest we overcome this? You need to overcome your sense of 'being an expert'. You need to continually go back and learn anew, challenge your knowledge, and widen your perspective.\n
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Resource Details

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Media Length
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5:23
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Grade
10th - Higher Ed
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Subjects
Career & Technical Education
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Media Type
Instructional Videos
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Source:
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\nOnline PM Courses\n\n
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Date
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2020
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Language
English
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Audiences
For Teacher Use
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Fine Print: Educational Use
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Concepts

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evidence, data, leads, prototypes
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confirmation bias, philip tetlock, it'll never fly, project management, black swan, black swan events, mike clayton, pilots, taleb, nassim nicholas taleb, failure, project failure, crisis, project crisis, confirmation bias explained, cognitive bias explained, failure to success, project manager, air flight, status report, project, gather, events, impossible, expression, check, afresh, times, heard, heavier, absence, highlight, find, disrupt, understand, call, recognise, massive, knowledge, experience, feeling, overconfident
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