\nThe simulation argument. Is the matrix real? Could your reality including everything you’ve ever known, be nothing more than pixels on a super advanced computer simulation? The argument that we may be living in a simulation is that a...\nThe simulation argument. Is the matrix real? Could your reality including everything you’ve ever known, be nothing more than pixels on a super advanced computer simulation? The argument that we may be living in a simulation is that a sufficiently advanced intelligent civilization could easily create ancestor simulations, because they would have the computing power to do so.
The amount of computing power needed to simulate a human mind can be roughly estimated. Hans Morovec, an expert in robotics at Carnegie Mellon university estimated this to be about ~10^14 operations per second, based on actual computer modeling of individual nervous tissues. Another estimate by Nick Bostrom of Oxford University have shown this to be up to 10^17 operations per second based on simulating the interconnection of synapses in the brain. And this kind of simulation would make the simulated beings conscious because they would essentially have exactly the same brain capability of any real humans.
K. Eric Drexler, a PhD engineer from MIT outlined a design for a system the size of a sugar cube that could perform 10^21 operations per second. And Robert Bradbury, has conceptualized a hypothetical computing megastructure, called a Matryoshka brain, based on a planet sized Dyson sphere that would have computing power on the order of 10^42 operations per second.
A total computing power of 10^27 would be all that is required to simulate the brains of every single person on earth. And a Matryoshka brain could simulate Trillions and trillions of earths. In fact, based on these computational densities, even a much smaller computer structure the size of the Empire State building could easily simulate a trillions of humans.
To make a simulation, not only would the brain need to be simulated, but also our environment and the passing of time. But if all we are trying to do is create a realistic simulation for humans, we don’t need that level of granularity. When people look up at the night sky for example, those stars and other objects can be simulated with very few pixels to give is sufficient realism. In fact no errors could ever occur because the master computer could simply stop time, go back and correct the error, and rerun that part of the simulation, so that any mistakes would be erased.
If we simulate the brain of 100 billion humans for 100 years per human and 30 million seconds per year, with 10^17 operations per second, the figure would be 10^37 operations. So even with a computer 0.001% the size of a Matrioshka brain, you could run this entire simulation in less than 1 second. So the computing power needed to run millions or billions of ancestor simulations is potentially possible with just a minor fraction of the computing power that a super intelligent civilization is likely to have.
Nick Bostrom, Professor of Philosophy at Oxford University has argued that there are three possibilities for the future of advanced intelligent beings in the universe:
1) Possibility 1 is that nearly all technologically advanced civilizations go extinct before they have the capability to create ancestor simulations.
2) Possibility 2 is that of all technologically advanced civilizations, none are interested in creating ancestor simulations that are so detailed that the simulated avatars are conscious.
3) Possibility 3 is that if the above two are not true, then we are almost certainly living in a simulation.
If any of the technologically advanced civilizations of the universe is not extinct, and is interested in creating ancestor civilization, then they would almost certainly create millions or billions or even trillions of such simulations because it would only require a fraction of their computing power. And if billions of simulations are happening, then many more simulated people than non-simulated people are conscious. So it is much more probable that we are one of these conscious simulations than actual real living beings.
So we are most likely inside a simulated reality.
But then again possibilities 1 or 2 could be true. If we do go on to create computer games with ancestor-simulations, this would be strong evidence against possibilities 1 and 2. If we are living in a simulation, then the cosmos that we are observing may just be a tiny piece of all existence. The physics of the real universe where the computer running the simulation is located, may not even be anything like our universe.
The crazy thing is that there are 7 billion of us humans on earth. Even if one of us discovers that he or she is living in a simulation, then all of us are living in a simulation. But then again, the overlords might rerun the simulation to make sure that none of us discovers that we are living in a simulation. \n
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are we living in a simulation, is reality real, what is the matrix, simulation theory, simulation hypothesis, nick bostrom, simulating humans, is the matrix real, are we living in the matrix?, simulation theory debunked, hans morovec, eric drexler, robert bradbury, entire reality, computing power, oxford university, ancestor simulations, simulated people, simulated, simulations, computer, people, human, brain, earth, trillions, universe
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