Introduction to Conditional Probability

This Introduction to Conditional Probability lesson plan also includes:

Here is a turnkey instructional activity that walks young statisticians through the development and uses of conditional probability. From dice games to surveys, Venn diagrams to frequency tables, the class learns how a given can effect the overall probability of a situation. Teaching notes include scripting, example solutions, and identification of key sticking points, while student examples and note sheets fulfill many support requirements for diverse learners. A great introductory conditional probability instructional activity for adding to your geometry or statistics curriculum.

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CCSS: Designed
Instructional Ideas

  • Have learners construct similar diagrams to the "Rolling Two Dice" visual for posting in the classroom
  • Bring in a local statistician, sociologist, or PhD researcher to discuss the uses of conditional probability in their field
  • Have the class determine the probability of rolling certain combinations in a dice game, like Yahtzee!, or getting card combinations in a game like Blackjack
  • Consider having the class conduct a survey similar to example 3 regarding mood and breakfast and reporting their conditional results in a 2-way frequency table with analysis
  • Could leave as a lesson plan for a highly qualified substitute
Classroom Considerations

  • Might need to take into account district considerations for teaching with respect to games of chance
  • Lesson assumes the class is comfortable using Venn diagrams and frequency tables
Pros

  • Detailed examples and student problems
  • Extensive teaching notes
  • Worked problem solutions for all examples and problems
  • Chart of dice probabilities provided
Cons

  • Misspelled word "die" on page 10
  • No corresponding homework problems provided
Common Core