 Introduction to Conditional Probability

This Introduction to Conditional Probability lesson plan also includes:

Here is a turnkey instructional activity that walks young statisticians through the development and uses of conditional probability. From dice games to surveys, Venn diagrams to frequency tables, the class learns how a given can effect the overall probability of a situation. Teaching notes include scripting, example solutions, and identification of key sticking points, while student examples and note sheets fulfill many support requirements for diverse learners. A great introductory conditional probability instructional activity for adding to your geometry or statistics curriculum.

CCSS: Designed

Instructional Ideas

• Have learners construct similar diagrams to the "Rolling Two Dice" visual for posting in the classroom
• Bring in a local statistician, sociologist, or PhD researcher to discuss the uses of conditional probability in their field
• Have the class determine the probability of rolling certain combinations in a dice game, like Yahtzee!, or getting card combinations in a game like Blackjack
• Consider having the class conduct a survey similar to example 3 regarding mood and breakfast and reporting their conditional results in a 2-way frequency table with analysis
• Could leave as a lesson plan for a highly qualified substitute
Classroom Considerations

• Might need to take into account district considerations for teaching with respect to games of chance
• Lesson assumes the class is comfortable using Venn diagrams and frequency tables
Pros

• Detailed examples and student problems
• Extensive teaching notes
• Worked problem solutions for all examples and problems
• Chart of dice probabilities provided
Cons

• Misspelled word "die" on page 10
• No corresponding homework problems provided