Time-Axis Fallacy and Bayes Theorem

Calculate theoretical probabilities and compare them to experimental probabilities. Pupils build on their knowledge of experimental probabilities to determine theoretical probabilities. Participants work several problems with the...

The fifth portion of the 25-part series introduces probabilities calculated from outcomes that are not equally likely. Class members use tables to calculate probabilities of events, add outcome's probabilities, and find...

Learners make predictions and draw conclusions from given information as they learn the meaning of probability in this vocabulary-rich, integrated activity that presents a variety of teaching strategies to motivate and reach...

Cultivate the tree of knowledge using diagrams with two stages. Pupils create small tree diagrams to determine the sample space in compound probability problems. The lesson uses only two decision points to introduce tree diagrams. 

Roll the dice with this multimedia math instructional activity on probability. After first viewing a series of three short videos explaining probability, independent events, and dependent events, young mathematicians...

Isn't paper pushing supposed to be boring? Learners attempt a paper-pushing puzzle to develop ideas about angles inscribed on a diameter of a circle. Learners then formalize Thales' theorem and use geometric properties to develop a proof...

Be brave, learn about Bayes. An informative video describes Bayes theorem and Bayesian hypothesis testing. It explains how this type of testing incorporates both statistics and beliefs about the hypothesis to wrap up the 24th installment...

In this Wireless Philosophy video, Ian Olasov (CUNY) introduces Bayes' Theorem of conditional probability and the related Base Rate Fallacy. [6:20]

Spin into a dicey experiment. Pupils use a spinner or a pair of dice to determine the experimental probabilities of each outcome. The interactive allows for either, one, five, or ten consecutive experiments. Using the applet, learners...

An interactive provides a model to visually represent the formula for the probability of an outcome. Given 10 numbered color cubes, pupils arrange them on the top and bottom shelf to represent the probability fraction. The learners...